On Feb. 14 the water temperature in the upper reaches of Lake Fork was near or even slightly above 60 degrees. That wasn’t far off spawning temperatures.

But this is Texas and while you might get suntanned while fishing one day, there is always the chance of having to deal with ice and snow the next. Just like this week. There is no doubt that same shallow water was 20 to 30 degrees colder by Friday, if it wasn’t iced over in some spots.

February has traditionally been the start of Lake Fork’s big bass season. A quarter of its Toyota ShareLunker entries over the years have come during the month. While some had come to shore to spawn, most were pre-spawn fish. Spawning activity has traditionally peaked during March and into April.

“I think the best you can do as far as estimating peak spawning is to pick the month of March. Bass spawning is a protracted affair, which extends for at least a couple of months. A good range, which should cover the majority of spawning activity, would be February through April,” said Kevin Storey, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Fisheries biologist for Lake Fork.

But then there are seasons like 2014 where it seemed to fishermen that the spawn never really happened.

“Last year in April we had water temperatures in the mid-50s,” said guide Brian Duplechain, one of many fishermen perplexed by a spawning season that extended longer than normal.

“Since spawning is influenced by temperature, extended winters or early spring warming will delay or accelerate spawning activity,” Storey said. “In the past few years we have had some colder weather that extended into the traditional time of spawning and that slowed activity down. As best as we can tell those changes are year by year. We’re not aware of any long-term changes that have moved the time of spawning later into the year. If there had been large changes in spawning activity on an annual scale it would be reflected in angling activity, and that seems to have remained consistent.”

Duplechain said fishermen, often suffering from a case of winter cabin fever this time of year, get prematurely excited after a few days of sunshine in February. He said while they see the sun they seldom take into account other environmental conditions.

“We had some sunshine and everyone thought the lake was going to warm up, but they didn’t consider the wind. It is not going to warm up if that wind is blowing,” he explained.

The guide said he had found 59-degree water in the back of the creeks and lower 50s on the main lake only a couple of weeks ago. With the wind blowing the main lake temperatures had dipped back into the upper 40s last weekend, and he expected it to nosedive back down to the mid- to lower-40s with last week’s weather. With more weather forecast for later this week, there is little doubt it is going to be cold for a while.

Duplechain agrees the cold has the biggest impact on spawning.

“I think the fronts affect it more than rising water and falling water. Rising water is a good deal because they are going to follow it. If it is falling it could be a problem because eggs may be left dry, but the fish are going to bite,” he explained.

With the lake down more than six feet it looks like fishermen are going to have to deal with a low lake level throughout the spawn. Duplechain doesn’t think that will hurt fishing.

“The fish are still there. They are still in the same area. You just have to back off casting distance from the bank,” he explained.

TPWD’s Storey said the water level could impact fry survival, but added that bass populations are resilient, and that Fork has especially been consistent in recruitment.

Looking at the date and the weather conditions, Duplechain is not looking for a big push into the shore for Thursday’s full moon.

“You can forget that,” he said.

Instead, he suggestions fishermen be prepared for a bigger push around the April full moon, unless winter comes late again and then all bets are off.

 

Have a comment or opinion on this? Email Steve Knight at outdoor@tylerpaper.com, follow him on Facebook at TylerPaper Outdoors and on Twitter @tyleroutdoor.